July 2026: Home sales jumped 9.6%, so why aren't prices moving?
- Barton Lui
- Jul 3
- 3 min read
This is Barton from Real Broker. Something changed in June, and it's worth your attention. For the first time in a while, home sales rose across every property type compared to last year: detached, townhouse, and condo all moved up together. That's rare. Prices are still down about 6% from a year ago, so let's look at why both things are happening.
Buyers came back across every home type
Metro Vancouver recorded 2,383 home sales in June, up 9.6% from June 2025. Sales have climbed every month since January, when there were just 1,102. The gains were broad:
Detached: 747 sales, up 13.7% year over year
Townhomes: 527 sales, up 11.4%
Condos and apartments: 1,107 sales, up 6.1%
June brought gains in home sales across all home types, and it's hard to believe it's actually happening. One caveat before anyone calls the market hot again: June sales were still about 12% below the 10-year average. Buyers are stepping back in after a very quiet stretch, and it's still slower than a normal June.
So why aren't prices rising?
If demand is picking up, you'd expect prices to follow. The MLS Home Price Index benchmark for all homes is $1,099,100, down 6% from a year ago and basically flat over the past six months. Here's the by-type picture:
Detached: $1,842,900, down 7.1% year over year
Townhome: $1,046,200, down 5%
Condo: $695,200, down 7.1%
There are still plenty of homes for sale, so buyers aren't competing the way they would in a tight market. The sales-to-active listings ratio was 14.6% in June, which is balanced territory. GVR's economist said it plainly: "prices haven't moved much in recent months as the inventory of homes for sale has been big enough to absorb the increased demand." For buyers, that means room to negotiate. For sellers, it means pricing sharply matters.
Inventory has stopped climbing
Total active listings ended June at 17,017, about 30% above the 10-year average, so supply is high. But it's stopped piling up the way it did through the spring, and new listings came in 6% below last June. Fewer owners are choosing to list. GVR's read: "standing inventory is no longer climbing, and may be showing early signs of reversing." If demand keeps recovering while new supply slows, the balance that's held prices down could start to change. It's early, but the pattern shifted this month for the first time this year.
What about mortgage rates?
Rates have been choppy. Bond yields climbed this summer on geopolitical tension and an oil-price shock, pushing 5-year fixed rates back toward 4.7%. They could ease under 4.5% if yields settle. Variable rates are expected to hold near 4.1% for the rest of 2026, with the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate at 2.25%.
My take on what comes next
Here's my read. I think prices stay flat while sales keep climbing, at least until buyers absorb more of the inventory that's sitting on the market. There's simply too much supply for prices to move up right now.
The presale market makes that harder. Roughly 4,000 brand-new units are competing for the same smaller pool of buyers, on top of everything already listed for resale. That much competition holds prices down.
I'm also watching population. I think a shrinking population is quietly pulling housing demand lower, and its effect will grow over the next few years. Fewer new households means less pressure on prices.
What this means for you
If you're buying: you still have negotiating room and a lot of choice, but you're no longer the only one at the table. The quiet window where sellers had little bargaining power may be starting to narrow, so don't count on unlimited time.
If you're selling: demand is improving, which is good news. With inventory still 30% above normal and prices down year over year, the homes that sell are the ones priced for today's market.
"June saw a pattern of broad gains in home sales across all home types relative to the same time last year, which has been a rare occurrence in recent years." Andrew Lis, GVR Chief Economist
Every neighbourhood and situation is different. Your timeline and budget are your own. If you're weighing a move in Metro Vancouver and want a straight read on what June's numbers mean for you, reach out or give me a call. I'm always glad to help.
Warm regards,
Barton Lui, Realtor
Real Broker
604-715-5568
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