Is now a good time to buy a condo in Metro Vancouver?
For a buyer who is ready, yes. Metro Vancouver apartment sales in September 2026 fell 18.6% from a year earlier, the benchmark price is $682,500 (down 6.2% in a year), and listings are 24.3% above the 10-year seasonal average. Buyers have more choice and more time right now.
What do the September 2026 numbers say about the condo market?
Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) counted 777 apartment sales in September 2026, against 954 in September 2025. Total sales across all property types were 25% below the 10-year seasonal average.
The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark for an apartment was $682,500, down 0.5% from August and 6.2% from a year ago. GVR's chief economist said all market segments are down about 3% since the start of the year.
There were 16,394 homes listed for sale at the end of September, 4% fewer than a year earlier but 24.3% more than the 10-year seasonal average for the month. Fewer sales and plenty of listings is what gives a buyer time.
Is it a buyer's market for condos?
Close to it. GVR tracks the sales-to-active listings ratio, which compares how many homes sold in a month with how many were available. Its historical analysis suggests prices come under downward pressure when the ratio stays below 12% for a sustained period, and under upward pressure when it passes 20% over several months.
In September 2026 the apartment ratio was 11.4%. Detached was 9.7%, attached was 12.2% and all property types together were 10.9%.
Apartments sit just under the 12% line. I'd call that a market that favours buyers a little. One month below 12% is not yet a sustained period, so I wouldn't treat September as proof of a long slide.
What are mortgage rates doing, and does it matter?
Rates move your monthly payment about as much as the price drop does.
The Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.25%. It has held there since October 2025 and was left unchanged on September 2, 2026. The next decision is October 28, along with a new Monetary Policy Report.
Fixed rates have started to rise. As of October 2, 2026, Ratehub listed the lowest advertised insured 5-year fixed rate at 4.34% and the lowest 5-year variable at 3.40%. Ratehub noted that Government of Canada bond yields had climbed that week, which pushes fixed rates up.
Forecasters don't agree on what comes next. Several economists now expect a Bank of Canada hike in October, and others expect hikes starting next year. I can't tell you who is right.
Here is what a rate move does, as an illustration and not a forecast. On a $500,000 mortgage over 25 years, a 4.34% rate means a payment of about $2,723 a month. At 5.34% it is about $3,006, or $283 more every month. To keep the payment at $2,723 when the rate is 5.34%, you'd borrow about $453,000.
A one-point increase takes about $47,000 off what that payment buys. For comparison, 6.2% of the $682,500 benchmark is about $42,300.
Who should wait?
Waiting makes sense in a few cases:
You don't have a down payment and an emergency fund set aside yet.
Your income is likely to change in the next few months and you can't predict how.
You expect to move within 2 or 3 years. Buying and selling costs are high enough that a short stay rarely pays off.
You haven't been pre-approved, so you don't know what you can borrow.
Nobody knows when the price bottom is until it's behind us, so I wouldn't wait for it. If you're renting, you're also paying rent while you wait.
What should a first-time buyer do in this market?
My view as Barton Lui, a REALTOR® with Real Broker: if you're ready and you've found a unit you'd be happy to live in for at least 5 years, buy it. Use the extra time the market gives you.
Get pre-approved, and ask for a rate hold so a rate increase before you buy doesn't change your numbers.
Look at more units than you would in a fast market. With listings above the 10-year seasonal average, you can compare.
Ask for a price below the list price when the strata documents and the unit support it.
Read the strata documents before you write an offer. What strata documents should I read before buying in BC covers the ones that matter.
Check what a 30-year amortization does to your payment. Since December 15, 2024, federal rules allow 30-year amortizations on insured mortgages for first-time buyers, per the Department of Finance Canada. In the example above, 30 years at 4.34% brings the payment on $500,000 down to about $2,475 a month, though you pay more interest overall.
If you're working out what you can afford, how much you need to earn to buy a condo in Metro Vancouver has the income math. For the price trend by city, see are Vancouver condo prices falling in 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Is now a good time to buy a condo in Metro Vancouver?
It is a reasonable time for a ready buyer. In September 2026 the apartment benchmark was $682,500, down 6.2% in a year, and listings were 24.3% above the 10-year seasonal average. Rates are rising, so a pre-approval with a rate hold helps.
Are condo prices still dropping in Metro Vancouver?
Slowly. GVR's apartment benchmark fell 0.5% from August to September 2026 and 6.2% over 12 months. The sales-to-active listings ratio for apartments was 11.4%, just below the 12% level that tends to bring downward price pressure.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before buying a condo?
I wouldn't. The Bank of Canada rate has been 2.25% since October 2025, and some economists expect hikes. As of October 2, 2026, the lowest advertised insured 5-year fixed rate was 4.34%, up with bond yields that week.
How much does a 1% higher mortgage rate cost?
On a $500,000 mortgage over 25 years, moving from 4.34% to 5.34% raises the monthly payment from about $2,723 to about $3,006. That is an extra $283 a month, from my own calculation.
Barton Lui is a REALTOR® with Real Broker in Vancouver. He works mostly with first-time buyers across Metro Vancouver and speaks English, Cantonese and Mandarin.
Thinking about buying a condo this fall? Book a consultation.
Reach him at 604-715-5568 or barton@bartonrealtor.com.
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