Navigating Metro Vancouver’s 2025 Market: Why Tariffs Won’t Stop Your Home buying Dreams

Barton Lui
Mar 7, 2025
4 min read

Introduction

Welcome to your March 2025 real estate update! As a residential real estate agent in Metro Vancouver, I’m here to guide you—especially first-time homebuyers—through the latest market trends, expert predictions, and the buzz around the U.S.-Canada tariff war. As of March 7, 2025, our market is balanced, offering more choice and opportunity than we’ve seen in years. While tariffs are making headlines, I believe their immediate impact on our real estate market will be minimal. Even better, if the trade war escalates, the Bank of Canada may lower interest rates to stimulate the economy—putting more money in your pocket with lower mortgage rates. Let’s dive into what this means for you!

Metro Vancouver Market Snapshot

Our local market is showing signs of balance, a rare treat for buyers:

Sales and Listings: February 2025, residential sales was down 11.7% from February 2024 and new listings wentup 10.9%, with a total inventory of 12,744 properties—32.3% more than last year. This means more homes to choose from!

Prices: The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark is $1,169,100, down 1.1% year-over-year. Detached homes sit at $2,006,100 (up 1.8%), apartments at $747,500 (down 2.8%), and townhouses at $1,087,100 (down 1.2%). Affordable options are within reach, especially in the condo market.
Market Conditions: With a sales-to-active listings ratio of 14.8%, we’re in balanced territory—neither a buyer’s nor seller’s market—giving you room to negotiate.

What’s Hot in Metro Vancouver Real Estate

Here’s what’s driving conversations among buyers and agents like me:

More Inventory: Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics, calls this “the largest selection of homes since pre-pandemic times”—a golden opportunity for first-timers (Greater Vancouver REALTORS® News Release).
Interest Rates: With a potential Bank of Canada rate cut on the horizon for mid-March, mortgage rates (currently around 3.87% for a 3-year fixed) could drop further, making homeownership more affordable (WOWA.ca Vancouver Housing Market).
Sustainability: Energy-efficient homes are trending, appealing to eco-conscious buyers looking for long-term savings (Statista Real Estate Trends).
Urban Living: Condo demand is strong in areas like Vancouver and Burnaby, perfect for first-time buyers seeking affordability and convenience (Exploding Topics Real Estate Trends).

2025 Forecast: Balance Market in most areas with specific areas favour Buyers

BCREA’s First Quarter Housing Forecast Update (January 27, 2025) is loaded with good news:

Sales Growth: BC sales are set to jump 14.3% to 85,140 units in 2025, then rise to 87,670 in 2026. For Greater Vancouver, sales are forecast to soar 23% to 32,500 units in 2025 from 26,429 in 2024—huge momentum!

Price Trends: BC average MLS® prices will climb 4.5% to $1,025,900 in 2025 and 3.1% to $1,058,200 in 2026. In Greater Vancouver, expect $1,325,000 in 2025 (up 2.56%) and $1,370,700 in 2026 (up 3.45%)—steady growth, not a spike.

Mortgage Rates: While not specified in the forecast, BCREA’s Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson notes tariff uncertainty. I predict if tariffs hit, the Bank could cut its policy rate below 2.75%, pushing variable rates below 3.5%—a big win for you!

Inventory Levels: With BC inventory trending up (12,744 in Metro Vancouver already), expect a healthy supply all year—more homes to choose from.

The Tariff Talk: Why It Won’t Derail Your Plans (Yet)

President Trump has delayed the tariff as of writing. His plan is to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian goods (10% on energy) effective April 2025, with Canada retaliating against $155 billion of U.S. imports. Some worry this could raise construction costs and home prices, but here’s my take:

Limited Immediate Impact: Metro Vancouver’s real estate market won’t feel significant effects right away. Canada’s robust lumber and steel production can buffer supply chain disruptions, keeping construction costs manageable in the short term. Experts like Kevin Lee from the Canadian Home Builders’ Association note that economic slowdowns take time to trickle down to housing starts (Global News on Canada Housing Impact).
A Silver Lining: If the tariff war escalates, the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates to counteract economic pressure. Lower rates mean cheaper mortgages—a huge win for first-time buyers like you! While some predict inflation could nudge rates up (Newsweek on Tariffs Impact), I believe the Bank’s focus on supporting growth will favour buyers. Imagine locking in a rate below 3.5%—your monthly payments could drop significantly.

What This Means for You

More Choice: With inventory up 32.3% and prices holding steady, you’ve got options—especially in condos and townhouses.
Lower Rates Ahead: A Bank of Canada cut could shrink your mortgage costs, making that first home more affordable.
Tariffs? No Panic: The market’s resilience and potential rate relief mean you don’t need to hit pause on your plans.

Action Steps for First-Time Buyers

Get Pre-Approved: With rates potentially dropping, lock in your budget now.
Explore Condos: At $747,500, apartments are a sweet spot for affordability.
Work with Me: As your agent, I’ll help you navigate this market and snag the best deal.

Summary Table: Your 2025 Advantage

Metric	Current (Feb 2025)	Forecast (2025)	Tariff Impact
Home Sales	1,827, down 11.7% YoY	+23% in Greater Vancouver	Minimal short-term effect
Home Prices	$1,169,100, down 1.1% YoY	$1.325m, +2.56%	Possible gradual rise, not immediate
Mortgage Rates	~3.87% (3-Year Fixed)	Could drop to ~3.5%	Lower if Bank of Canada responds
Inventory	12,744, up 32.3% YoY	More choice ahead	Stable due to local supply strength

Let’s Make 2025 Your Year!

Metro Vancouver’s market is ripe for buyers. Tariffs may loom but in a different form due to pressure from multiple industries down south. Their impact won’t hit hard or fast—and if they do, lower interest rates could turn the tide in your favour. Ready to take the next step? Contact me today to explore your options and secure your dream home!